Lately, I’ve been seeing a lot of delusion on #RedSoxTwitter regarding the competitive state of today’s team. Well, I’m afraid I’ve got some BAD NEWS. This team, as currently constructed, is not fit to make a run at a wild card. In fact, not many teams would be prepared to claw themselves out from this big a hole.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds page,  the final standings should look something like this.

Yankees: 87-75
Blue Jays: 84-78
Red Sox: 81-81
Rays: 80-82
Orioles: 78-84

There are 72 games remaining in the season. To win 88 games, the Sox would need to win 46 games. 46 wins with 72 games remaining is a .639 winning percentage.

That’s outperforming an already optimistic projection by 7 games.

Now Clay Buchholz is out indefinitely, meaning the rotation lacks any consistently good arms. E-Rod is on an undetermined innings limit and currently sits at 101 innings. Porcello should be better (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was fine the rest of the season,) but he isn’t talented enough to carry a rotation even at his best.

The offense is littered with over performers such as Brock Holt and Alejandro De Aza, but should be balanced off by better performances by Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and David Ortiz. All in all, I feel it’s a wash with some potential upside. Either way, it’s not enough to carry the terrible pitching staff.

Competing this year was a fun idea, but it’s time to let it go and get ready for 2016 and beyond. This team sucks.